March 2026 Phoenix Metro Area Market Update

Listings Under Contract Now Up 10% Over Last Year

Fewer New Listings Entering Market, Supply Stabilizing

For Buyers

It’s been a busy month in the housing market! Contracts in escrow are now up 10.2% over last year and are outperforming even 2023 and 2024 at this juncture. Influencing this increase in demand have been mortgage rates stabilizing below 6.2% since Christmas and even hitting 5.99% in the last week of February. While the Cromford® Demand Index shows the Phoenix market is 13% below normal, that’s an improvement from 16% below normal last month, and 24% below normal measured in August last year.

New listings have notably dropped off, however, as some sellers wait for better days to list their homes. While newly active counts in January were in line with last year, both February and March-to-date are down 7%. With fewer new listings replenishing those that have gone under contract, cancelled, or expired, the overall supply count has stopped rising. Last month inventory was up 9% over last year, now it’s dropped to 5%, and at this rate it could be below last year by next month.

While buyer demand for homes has been recovering, the recent war with Iran that started on February 28th has created some speed bumps along the way. Hopes are high that the effects are temporary, but the rising cost of gas threatens to affect the current rate of inflation in the United States. Mortgage rates do not like inflation, and in response they have risen from 5.99% to as high as 6.4% as of this writing. This increase in mortgage rate gives buyers two choices, to accept a 5% increase in payment, or a 5% drop in purchasing power.

The effect on the market could be a lag in contract activity as buyers wait to see if mortgage rates drift down again. If and when they do, then a surge of new contracts could follow. Rumors of increased tax refunds may also provide a welcome boost to the April season.

For Sellers

Monthly closings so far are holding close to last year’s count, but current contract activity suggests that will improve over the next 4-6 weeks. The condo/townhome market is finally seeing some improvement. After starting off slow, condos under contract finally pulled ahead of last year by 1.3%. While this is welcome news, unfortunately it remains a tough market for condo sellers as inventory is 11% higher and sales prices continue to decline. This is especially true in small condos under 1,100 sq ft that are competing with newly built apartment complexes offering big incentives and lower rents to attract tenants. These small units have seen an accumulated price decline of nearly 17% since the peak of June 2022, which erases most appreciation achieved after mid-2021. Condos and townhomes larger than 1,100 sq ft have fared much better than the smaller units, but still have a tougher time than single family homes competing within the same price points.

Within the single family market, certain areas are hotter than others when looking at the ratio between what’s active vs. what’s under contract. Specifically, the zip codes surrounding the intersection of the 101 and I-17 in the North Valley. This area includes North Glendale, Moon Valley, and Desert Ridge. Other noteworthy areas with favorable demand for single family sellers are Maryvale, Tolleson and Laveen in the West Valley, and in the Southeast Valley South Tempe, Chandler, West Mesa and the I 60 corridor to Apache Junction.

For single family properties under $400K, the entire West Valley lights up hot with many zip codes showing a frenzy with more homes under contract than active for sale. Increasing the price range to $400K-$500K, then the entire Southeast Valley lights up with hot and frenzy activity. As the price rises to $600K-$800K, the entire north side of the 101 lights up with activity spanning Norterra, Moon Valley, Desert Ridge, Cave Creek, and North Scottsdale. The purpose to this story is to illustrate that one price point may be a frenzy in one area, cold in another, and balanced everywhere else.

The luxury market in particular has had an extraordinary season thus far. Specifically, sales over $3M are up 26% year to date, aided by a whopping 26 ultra-luxury sales over $10M. The biggest year for sales over $10M was 2025 with 32 sales. That was for the entire year. 2026 has already achieved 81% of 2025’s annual sales count before the first quarter is complete. There are currently 102 active properties for sale over $10M in the Arizona Regional MLS.

The message for sellers continues to be patience. The housing market is in recovery, but it’s a slow one.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2026 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC